The Green Bay Packers have been here before, and not all that long ago.

Mid-November. Five wins. Thick of the playoff chase. Fresh off a crucial home triumph that seems to have everyone believing they've turned the corner.

It was all for naught last season. The Packers followed that big win, a 37-3 thrashing of Chicago, with a five-game losing skid as their postseason hopes slowly, painfully bled to death.

"If you don't learn from the past, you're a fool," veteran linebacker Aaron Kampman said this past week. "So, hopefully, we're not fools."

This time, the Packers (5-4) are all but out of the NFC North Division title hunt, three games plus a tiebreaker behind Minnesota (8-1), which swept the season series.

But the NFC wild-card race couldn't be more wide open, with seven teams bunched together at four or five wins. The Packers, who knocked off NFC East Division front-runner Dallas 17-7 last week, stand in a four-way tie for fifth place in the conference with Philadelphia, Atlanta and the New York Giants, all playoff teams from a year ago.

Once again, a playoff berth is there for the taking if the Packers hold serve against one of the weaker closing schedules of the group, beginning with today's game against another contender, the San Francisco 49ers (4-5).

"It's big," nose tackle Ryan Pickett said. "Every game, we have to win. We've got to beat San Francisco. It's more important than the Dallas game. We're determined to go out with the same energy, the same effort, and go to win."

Shown a printout of the standings, Pickett said, "Oh, this is like -- dang." He paused, then added, "Honestly, we aren't even worried about that, man. Everyone's so serious, we're so focused on San Francisco. We don't need to be concerned with that. If we win, everything will be good."

Winning became easier said than done at this time last season, though, when New Orleans, Carolina, Houston, Jacksonville and Chicago found ways to pull away in one tight game after another.

So, is there reason to believe this season will be different? That this time, the Packers will rise from that thick middle of the pack and extend their season?

"Talk to me in about four weeks," Kampman said, smiling, "and then we'll have this discussion."

**

A look at the playoffs

Six weeks from the regular season's conclusion, only the New Orleans Saints (9-0) and Minnesota Vikings (8-1) look like locks for the NFC playoffs.

Behind them are nine teams bunched together between four and six wins, leaving plenty of possible scenarios that could unfold between today and Jan. 3.

With that in mind, the Green Bay Press-Gazette this past week examined each contender's conference record, remaining schedule, strengths and weaknesses, then conducted an extensive interview with a high-ranking AFC personnel man, who agreed to share his thoughts anonymously and make a prediction about the NFC playoff field.

The second half of last week's game against Dallas convinced the personnel man the Green Bay Packers belong atop the group of seven teams at four or five wins. He put the other wild-card spot as a toss-up between Philadelphia, the New York Giants and Atlanta, with the Falcons narrowly getting the nod.

The following is an expanded look at each of the nine teams, plus one insider's subjective opinion on why it will or won't be playing in the postseason:

Dallas Cowboys

Record: 6-3 (1st NFC East). Against NFC: 5-2.

Remaining opponents: 33-30. Home games: 4.

Head to head: Beat N.Y. Giants, Carolina, Atlanta, Philadelphia. Lost to Green Bay. Must play at Giants, vs. Philadelphia.

Why they'll make it: Balanced offense ranks sixth in passing (260.4 yards per game), eighth in rushing (130 ypg). Defense is eighth in scoring (18.8 points per game). OLB DeMarcus Ware (seven sacks) is an elite pass rusher. Already have five conference wins.

Why they won't: QB Tony Romo tends to fade down the stretch (71.9 career passer rating in December). Just lost RT Marc Colombo (leg) for the season. Tough games ahead against San Diego, New Orleans.

Scout's take: "I sense that they're a little bit of an offense looking to find some continuity. I just don't sense a lot of chemistry there. I see talent. They reasonably could slip back. I think they've got enough talent to stay out front, but the quarterback is so inconsistent, you never know when he's going to lay an egg."

Arizona Cardinals

Record: 6-3 (1st NFC West). Against NFC: 4-2.

Remaining opponents: 23-40. Home games: 3.

Head to head: Beat N.Y. Giants, Chicago. Lost to Carolina, San Francisco. Must play vs. Green Bay.

Why they'll make it: Hot of late, winning five of six. QB Kurt Warner has posted five 100-plus passer ratings for No. 5-ranked passing offense (271 ypg). Run defense is solid (3.7 yards per carry). Three games left against horrible teams (St. Louis twice, Detroit) and only two against winning teams (Minnesota, Green Bay). Play in arguably the NFL's worst division.

Why they won't: Still can't run (31st, 84.2 ypg), although rookie RB Chris "Beanie" Wells is coming on. Pass defense (30th, 253.4 ypg) also is awful despite good pass rush (25 sacks, tied for fourth).

Scout's take: "I don't see them having much in terms of challenge from San Fran, because they've finally got the rookie running back (Wells) holding onto the football. You combine him with the other kid, (Tim) Hightower, who's a good receiver out of the backfield -- and of course, they can throw the ball vertically, they can throw it laterally, and their defense is playing relatively well."

Philadelphia Eagles

Record: 5-4 (t-2nd NFC East). Against NFC: 4-2.

Remaining opponents: 33-30. Home games: 3.

Head to head: Beat Carolina, N.Y. Giants. Lost to Dallas. Must play at Chicago, at Atlanta, at N.Y. Giants, vs. San Francisco, at Dallas.

Why they'll make it: QB Donovan McNabb has been efficient (12 TD passes, four INTs, 95.1 rating) and has a breakout star in WR DeSean Jackson (62 catches, 912 yards). Defense is aggressive and productive (29 sacks, 15 interceptions). Usually find a way -- made playoffs seven times in 10 seasons under coach Andy Reid.

Why they won't: On two-game skid, with losses to Dallas and San Diego. RB Brian Westbrook (concussion) is out indefinitely. Four of five games against fellow contenders are on the road.

Scout's take: "I thought that they had their act together, and they went out and lost a game to the Raiders and they lost this past week (to San Diego). I'll be interested to see how they play with the loss of Westbrook, who's one of their main cogs, and then just to kind of see how they go down the stretch."

Atlanta Falcons

Record: 5-4 (2nd NFC South). Against NFC: 4-3.

Remaining opponents: 28-35. Home games: 4.

Head to head: Split with Carolina. Beat Chicago. Lost to Dallas. Must play at N.Y. Giants, vs. Philadelphia.

Why they'll make it: RB Michael Turner has battled through injuries to post three straight 100-yard games. TE Tony Gonzalez (44 catches, 501 yards, four TDs) remains a match-up nightmare at age 33, and WR Roddy White (47-668-6) is on his way to a third straight 1,000-yard season. Defense has 18 takeaways.

Why they won't: QB Matt Ryan's productivity and efficiency has slipped (14 TDs, 12 INTs, 78.8 rating) from his rookie season. Turner's ankle remains an issue. Defense gives up 371 yards per game (25th). Failed to beat a team that currently has a winning record in three tries.

Scout's take: "With Ryan, this being his second year, people have a whole year's worth of scouting reports on him and all that kind of stuff and are able to kind of see his strengths and weaknesses. He's got to overcome that. But I still love their receiving crew, and I think they've got a legitimate chance to make a run."

Green Bay Packers

Record: 5-4 (2nd NFC North). Against NFC: 4-3.

Remaining opponents: 29-34. Home games: 3.

Head to head: Beat Chicago, Dallas. Must play vs. San Francisco, at Chicago, at Arizona.

Why they'll make it: One of only four NFL teams ranked in top 10 on offense (eighth, 336.2 ypg) and defense (fourth, 282.3 ypg). No. 1 in turnover margin (plus-13). QB Aaron Rodgers is among league's most efficient (101.8 rating). WRs Donald Driver (41 catches, 663 yards, 4 TDs) and Greg Jennings (38-543-2) form a solid duo. CB Charles Woodson (five INTs) is a force.

Why they won't: Ongoing issues in pass protection (league-high 41 sacks allowed) behind ever-changing line. Defense has hit snags in transition to 3-4 defensive scheme; it looked faster last week without DE-turned-LOLB Aaron Kampman (2½ sacks). Run game is improving (119.2 ypg, 4.4 per carry), but RB Ryan Grant isn't elite. Shaky special teams contributed to bad loss Nov. 8 at Tampa Bay.

Scout's take: "With Driver and Jennings and with Rodgers -- you guys have some playmakers. I like your defense. They're coming around; it looks like they're getting comfortable with what they're doing scheme-wise. You've got a nice secondary, veteran guys. I think that the Tampa Bay loss was a little bit of a flash in the pan. As I'm looking at them, I think that they'll play well down the stretch."

New York Giants

Record: 5-4 (t-2nd NFC East). Against NFC: 3-3.

Remaining opponents: 37-27. Home games: 4.

Head to head: Beat Dallas. Lost to Arizona, Philadelphia. Must play vs. Atlanta, vs. Dallas, vs. Philadelphia, vs. Carolina.

Why they'll make it: Despite a slew of injuries, still rank No. 1 in defense (274.4 ypg) and No. 5 in offense (377.7 ypg). WRs Steve Smith (61 catches, 719 yards, five TDs), Mario Manningham (34-491-4) and Hakeem Nicks (23-407-4) all have impressed. All four matchups with fellow contenders and two of three division games are at home.

Why they won't: Four-game losing streak has coincided with nagging injuries to QB Eli Manning (plantar fasciitis) and Jacobs' complement, RB Ahmad Bradshaw (ankle/foot). Defense has missed S Kenny Phillips (knee). Both kickers struggling. Brutal schedule includes visits to Denver and Minnesota.

Scout's take: "The Giants, I thought, early in the season were going to run away with everything, but they've kind of hit that patch. It looked like it all kind of started when Manning tweaked that heel. I think they're still a really good football team and a talented bunch. But sometimes, when things start rolling downhill, it starts to snowball."

San Francisco 49ers

Record: 4-5 (2nd NFC West). Against NFC: 4-2.

Remaining opponents: 26-37. Home games: 3.

Head to head: Beat Arizona, Chicago. Lost to Atlanta. Must play at Green Bay, vs. Arizona, at Philadelphia.

Why they'll make it: Talented defensive front led by star ILB Patrick Willis is ranked No. 1 in rushing yards against per attempt (3.3). RB Frank Gore (105 carries, 551 yards, six TDs) is solid when healthy. TE Vernon Davis (45 catches, 493 yards, 7 TDs) is a budding star. Close with gimme games against Detroit and St. Louis.

Why they won't: QB Alex Smith (79.5 passer rating) hasn't been much better than Shaun Hill (79.6) in 3½ games. Can't pass (1,580 ypg, 24th) or protect the passer (28 sacks allowed, 28th). Can't stop the pass (248.3 ypg, 29th) or rush the passer (17 sacks, t-23rd).

Scout's take: "With them, it's always going to be whether or not they can get their quarterback situation stabilized. I like their team because they're a tough team. I don't think that they're going to beat themselves. Offensively, they're going to try to grind it out and just try to manage the short throws and just try to beat you that way."

Chicago Bears

Record: 4-5 (3rd NFC North). Against NFC: 2-4.

Remaining opponents: 33-30. Home games: 4.

Head to head: Lost to Green Bay, Atlanta, Arizona, San Francisco. Must play vs. Philadelphia.

Why they'll make it: Coach Lovie Smith's defense ranks 10th (313.8 ypg) despite the losses of LBs Brian Urlacher (wrist) and Pisa Tinoisamoa (knee). WR Devin Hester (48 catches, 596 yards, three TDs) is developing and remains a threat on returns, even though he hasn't scored since 2007.

Why they won't: QB Jay Cutler (76.0 rating, 17 INTs) has been a turnover machine. RB Matt Forte (3.4 yards per carry) is sophomore slumping. Turnover ratio is bad (minus-5). Have four conference losses, all to other teams in the chase. Still have to play Minnesota twice.

Scout's take: "I expected Cutler to play a lot better than he has. I thought that he'd be the dynamic that would help propel them into being a serious contender, but so far, he's been up and down. I watched a part of that game (at San Francisco, where Cutler threw five interceptions), and man -- some of the throws that he made, I don't know what he was looking at. He has been really up and down, and I think that's contributed to them being 4-5."

Carolina Panthers

Record: 4-6 (3rd NFC South). Against NFC: 4-4.

Remaining opponents: 33-21. Home games: 3.

Head to head: Beat Arizona. Lost to Philadelphia, Dallas. Split with Atlanta. Must play at N.Y. Giants.

Why they'll make it: Won four of seven since bye. RBs DeAngelo Williams (181 carries, 982 yards, 7 TDs) and Jonathan Stewart (110 carries, 509 yards, 6 TDs) might be best tandem in league. QB Jake Delhomme (66.0 passer rating) is OK when he's not forcing the ball deep to WR Steve Smith (45 catches, 599 yards). DE Julius Peppers (seven sacks) can take over a game.

Why they won't: Just lost LT Jordan Gross (ankle) for the season. Already lost four conference games. Only three teams since 1990 have reached playoffs after starting 0-3. Closing stretch is ridiculous, with games against three division leaders -- New England, Minnesota and New Orleans -- around a road game against the Giants.

Scout's take: "The quarterback, early, he was killing them. The way that they run the football with those two guys, that gives them a chance. I just don't know if (Delhomme) can go the full season without throwing them out of games, because he's found other jerseys a lot throughout the course of the season."