Trading high draft picks for a veteran player is as risky a move as an NFL general manager can make.

If the player succeeds, the GM looks like a genius for valuing a proven player over unknown college prospects.

If the player fails, the GM looks like a dufus for mortgaging the future to get a player another team didn't want.

Age, durability, importance of the position, longevity of the position, schematic background, personal background, slot of the pick(s) involved -- it all factors into a decision that can make or break a franchise's fortunes for years to come. Which is why the gambles taken by two teams the past two years stand out when examining the near future of the NFC North Division.

The Minnesota Vikings dealt a first-round draft pick and two third-rounders to Kansas City in April 2008 for pass-rusher Jared Allen, who led the NFL in sacks the previous season but also was suspended for multiple drunk-driving arrests. Allen received a new six-year, $73.26 million contract and has earned every penny with 29 sacks in 29 games for the Vikings, who appear on their way to a second consecutive division title.

The Chicago Bears paid an even steeper price this past April for Jay Cutler, the Pro Bowl quarterback who had fallen out of favor quickly with new Denver Broncos coach Josh McDaniels. Bears General Manager Jerry Angelo gave up two first-round picks, a third-round pick and quarterback Kyle Orton for Cutler and a fifth-round pick, betting the house a franchise-type talent at the most important position was the missing piece.

Early returns were good enough Angelo also gave Cutler a new five-year, $49.77 million contract on Oct. 20. In seven games since, however, the Bears have lost five and Cutler has raised almost as many questions with his 13 interceptions as his demeanor on and off the field. At 5-7 entering today's game against the Green Bay Packers, the Bears are all but out of the NFC playoff picture.

"I think you always try to improve in all areas in the offseason, but I feel good about what we have," Bears coach Lovie Smith said this past week. "We have some good young players that we're playing right now that will only get better. When you bring in a new quarterback, a new marquee guy like that, of course, you'd like for the offense to be championship-ready right away, and everything just takes a little bit of time."

But not only has Cutler fallen short of expectations, the cost of acquiring him -- as well as end Gaines Adams, picked up from Tampa Bay in October for the Bears' second-round pick in 2010 -- has limited the Bears' flexibility for filling the multitude of holes scouts see on their roster.

The offensive line is a mess. There is potential at receiver but no consistent threat. There are no ascending, possible future stars on defense. Adams -- like Cutler (No. 11 in 2006), a former first-round draft pick (No. 4 in 2007) -- flashes occasionally and seems to fit the scheme, but he's done next to nothing.

And then there's Cutler, whose issues surely aren't physical -- he has an elite arm, is mobile and was rated the NFC North's best quarterback in the Green Bay Press-Gazette's preseason poll of scouts outside the division -- but too often plays like a guy who just doesn't care. His performance the past two months has raised serious questions around the league about his commitment, his willingness to play within a system and his capacity for being a leader, given his body language and propensity for complaining to officials on the field.

The Bears felt otherwise when they acquired Cutler, in part because of area scout Rex Hogan's rapport with him when Cutler was playing at Vanderbilt. But like used cars, players as talented as Cutler don't end up on the block for no reason, so his availability alone was the sort of red flag personnel departments can't ignore.

Cutler easily is the highest-profile trade acquisition for Angelo since he became the Bears' GM in June 2001. The Vikings had been on the other end of such megadeals in recent years -- they sent receiver Randy Moss to Oakland in 2005 and quarterback Daunte Culpepper to Miami in 2006 -- before the Allen trade. Ditto the Detroit Lions, who made another of the biggest deals in 2008 by dealing receiver Roy Williams to Dallas for four draft picks.

The Packers have completed only one pick-for-player deal in five years under General Manager Ted Thompson, sending a sixth-round pick to the New York Giants for running back Ryan Grant on cutdown day in 2007. They did go down to the wire in trade talks for Moss (in April 2007) and tight end Tony Gonzalez (in October 2008) and have been involved with a number of other potential deals, although nothing on the scale of the Cutler or Allen trades.

Thompson downplays his consideration of the future when mulling such deals -- "to some degree, but not over the now," he said this past week -- but like his reluctance to participate in the first wave of free agency, Thompson's deliberate approach in trade talks jibes with his philosophy the draft is where a team builds its core.

If it's not a special player at the right price, Thompson won't pull the trigger. Teams make mistakes in the draft, too, but rarely do those errors set back a team for years -- as the Cutler and Adams deals could if neither player pans out in Chicago.

"We're the youngest team in the league," Packers coach Mike McCarthy said. "With that, it means we have growth and the ability to get better and continue to improve. I've said it before, it's a title we'd like to give up here soon, being the youngest team. But yeah, I think our days are very bright down the road."

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Labor uncertainty complicates matters

The X-factor in the NFL's coming offseason is the collective bargaining agreement.

If a new deal isn't reached before the start of the league year in early March, the salary cap would go away and players with four or five years' service could become only restricted free agents, rather than unrestricted. So, although teams would have unlimited spending space, there would be far fewer players on whom to spend it -- and teams also would proceed cautiously in anticipation of a possible work stoppage in 2011.

With that caveat, the Green Bay Press-Gazette this past week examined the rosters of the four teams in the NFC North Division, paying particular attention to starters' ages, contract status and performance level, as well as the contributions of first- and second-year players. The following is a look at the immediate future of the division, based on that study and opinions solicited from pro personnel people around the league.

1. Minnesota Vikings

* 2009 record: 10-2.

* Outlook: At age 40, QB Brett Favre can't play forever, but the Vikings were a talented team without him. All-Pro RB Adrian Peterson is one of the game's elite players. The addition of one downfield threat (WR Percy Harvin) and emergence of another (WR Sidney Rice) helped balance the offense. The line didn't miss a beat with two first-year starters joining Pro Bowl LG Steve Hutchinson, serviceable LT Bryant McKinnie and gritty RG Anthony Herrera. The defense isn't young but continues to get a high level of play from its Pro Bowl core -- DTs Kevin Williams and Pat Williams, DE Jared Allen and CB Antoine Winfield -- plus an active group of linebackers. If there's a clear weakness, it's depth and perhaps a second starter at cornerback opposite Winfield, although the Vikings thought enough of CB Cedric Griffin to extend him through 2014.

* Young guns: Harvin has star potential. He's not an exceptional route-runner yet, but he has so much quickness and explosion he simply makes plays when he gets in the open field. The second-round pick this year, RT Phil Loadholt, and C John Sullivan both look like guys the Vikings can hang their hat on for years to come. SS Tyrell Johnson looks like he's ascending.

* Decisions, decisions: The biggest question, of course, probably won't be answered until next summer. No. 2 QB Tarvaris Jackson could be a free agent and Sage Rosenfels is due to make $2.6 million in 2010, so if Favre is back, they might both be gone. If Favre re-re-retires and stays retired, Rosenfels likely would end up competing with someone. The only starters who could be free agents are two fourth-year players, FB Naufahu Tahi and LE Ray Edwards.

2. Green Bay Packers

* 2009 record: 8-4.

* Outlook: The Packers appear to have their franchise quarterback, Aaron Rodgers, but they need to forge a long-term plan to protect him. Four players who have started this season along the offensive line -- LT Chad Clifton, RT Mark Tauscher, LG Daryn Colledge and C/G Jason Spitz -- are potential free agents. Left tackle is the most difficult position to fill, particularly without a top-10 draft pick, but it's unclear how far they'd go to bring back Clifton, given his age (33) and injury issues. The Packers also could use a speed presence to preserve downhill, one-cut RB Ryan Grant and force defenses to respect two different styles. WR Donald Driver (34) and the defense's best player, CB Charles Woodson (33), are about the same age as Clifton but playing much younger. Drafting DL B.J. Raji and ROLB Clay Matthews filled two major needs in any 3-4 defense -- run stopper and rusher -- but there's more work to do.

* Young guns: Raji needs some fine-tuning, but he's stout, versatile and has the ability to be an inside force against the run. Matthews is a three-down player who runs well, makes plays in space and is pesky enough to make a tackle work with his outside speed rush. RG Josh Sitton has been the offensive line's best player. Athletic TE Jermichael Finley is a matchup nightmare but needs to become more consistent.

* Decisions, decisions: Rookie OLB Brad Jones has four games left in an audition that will factor in the decision on OLB Aaron Kampman, who will be coming off ACL reconstruction and probably would prefer to be a 4-3 end somewhere. Kampman and NT Ryan Pickett, both 30, are the oldest defensive starters on a long list of potential free agents that also includes LE Johnny Jolly, SS Atari Bigby and FS Nick Collins. CB Al Harris (35), coming off his own torn ACL, is due $3.7 million in salary and bonuses in 2010.

3. Chicago Bears

* 2009 record: 5-7.

* Outlook: The good news is every starter on offense and every key player on defense is signed through at least next season. The bad news is a lot of them need to be replaced. It's worst along the offensive line, where C Olin Kreutz remains a solid, if declining, starter and the rest have been mediocre to bad. LT Orlando Pace is finished, LG Frank Omiyale has been a bust and there are no ascending young standouts, though RT Chris Williams could develop into a serviceable starter if back problems stay behind him. On defense, the only game-changers are MLB Brian Urlacher, who broke a wrist in the season opener and is due $6.825 million next season, and WLB Lance Briggs. The past two drafts have done little to help the defense, and a youth infusion is sorely needed, particularly at cornerback. The holes will be harder to fill because GM Jerry Angelo gave up the first two picks in the 2010 draft (as well as two 2009 picks) in trades for underachieving DE Gaines Adams and QB Jay Cutler, who's been a sulking interception machine the past two months. Cutler has loads of physical talent, though, and still is young enough (26) to mature into an elite player.

* Young guns: RB Matt Forte's numbers have plunged in his second season, but he's a downhill runner who can do damage between the tackles and also is a threat to catch the ball out of the backfield. WR Johnny Knox brings a speed element on the perimeter and at least can be a contributor on offense, as well as in the return game. DT Marcus Harrison has shown some inside rush ability.

* Decisions, decisions: Besides Pace (age 34), Kreutz (32) and Urlacher (31), DEs Adewale Ogunleye (32) and Alex Brown (30) are clearly on the backside of their careers. Fourth-year FS Danieal Manning probably is the secondary's best player, a decent return man and the most important to re-sign among four full- or part-time defensive starters who could be free agents.

4. Detroit Lions

* 2009 record: 2-10.

* Outlook: At least they've won a couple of games this year, but it may take years for the Lions to reverse the effects of the Matt Millen/Rod Marinelli era. It's most obvious on defense, where Marinelli wanted to downsize and increase the unit's speed, quickness and mobility. New coach Jim Schwartz no doubt wants to change the group's personality to mirror the physical, downhill style he employed as defensive coordinator in Tennessee, but he can't do it with smallish guys whose strength is pursuit and lateral range. The offense has an upper-tier weapon in WR Calvin Johnson and added two promising skill players -- QB Matthew Stafford and TE Brandon Pettigrew, who was coming on before tearing an ACL against the Packers on Thanksgiving -- in GM Martin Mayhew's first draft. Another top-five draft pick in 2010 seems destined to go for defense, but the Lions also desperately need to address the line, which is shaky outside of steady veteran LT Jeff Backus.

* Young guns: The team will be built around Stafford, Pettigrew and FS Louis Delmas, the second-round pick. RB Kevin Smith looks like a functional starter but probably nothing more. A few other players from Millen's final draft -- RT Gosder Cherilus, DE Cliff Avril and LB Jordon Dizon -- are contributing. FB Jerome Felton quietly could develop into a complementary star.

* Decisions, decisions: A bunch of pending free agents -- LG Jon Jansen (age 33), FB Terrelle Smith (31), CB Demarcus Faggins (30), SS Marquand Manuel (30) and MLB Larry Foote (29) -- are aging stopgaps. Toss in DT Grady Jackson (36), Backus (32), LB Julian Peterson (31), C Dominic Raiola (30) and DE Dewayne White (30), and an incredible nine starters on one of the NFL's worst teams are 30 or older, not to mention PK Jason Hanson (39) and P Nick Harris (31). The Lions also must sort through 13 players on injured reserve.